Will Bitcoin See A Repeat Of November 2018? A Look At The On-Chain Data

The Bitcoin price is lingering just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released last week, the BTC price plunged to just that price level. Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound happened, catching shorters off guard. With November 02 – when the FED meets again – in mind, the Bitcoin price doesn’t have much room to fall below that level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, although there are positive signals as well. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Still Consolidates, What Could Trigger A Nasty Drop According to CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes above the realized price of all coins bought (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins. Based on this analysis, the analysis concludes that the Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this respect, the drop from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to the price decline from $30,000 to $18.00, as the percentage decline in the last bear market from $6,000 to $3,000 was 50%. That being said, the bottom may not have been seen yet: The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k would put BTC at $15k (-18% from th...